Blackjack: A Winning Procedure - Using Statistical Performances
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The last three were sold to Demand Media, Virgin, and Yahoo! Below are three essential tips—from the world of blackjack—that will help people become better entrepreneurs and succeed in their start-up businesses. Yet most blackjack players do not follow the optimal strategy.
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The classic case is when a player has a bad hand, such as a 16, and the dealer has a marginal up card, such as a seven. The optimal strategy in this case is for the player to take a card. But if they get a six, seven, eight, nine, 10, jack, queen, or king more than 60 percent of the deck , they will lose automatically.
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So the natural tendency is for the player to stand pat on this hand not take a card in the hopes that the dealer himself will have to take a card and will bust. Professor Bruce Carlin at UCLA studied the game of blackjack and found that this is a common bias for which many blackjack players fall. In fact, his studies showed that four times the amount of mistakes at the blackjack table were caused by players favoring inaction over action. We observe this bias not only at the blackjack table, but also throughout our lives. When faced with difficult decisions, we often favor inactivity over activity.
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We put off making a decision for fear of causing harm to ourselves or to our company. As entrepreneurs, we are faced with many difficult decisions, and ignoring or delaying them can prove disastrous. Waiting too long to fire someone or kill a struggling product line can often be more problematic than firing too quickly or pivoting too quickly. Yet many of us will maintain status quo, failing to remember that not making a decision is actually a decision to not make a decision. Did any of the above 4 metrics shock you?
Also, if you increase the number of games, the percentage times someone becomes bankrupt increases.
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Why is that? On your lucky days, you can win as much as you can possibly win, and Casino will never stop you saying that Casino is now bankrupt. So in this biased game between you and Casino, for a non-rigged game, both you and Casino has the expected value of no gain no loss. But you have a lower bound and Casino has no lower bound. So, to pull the expected value down, a high number of people like you have to become bankrupt. Let us validate this theory through a simuation using the previously defined functions. Clearly the bankruptcy rate and maximum earning seem correlation.
What it means is that the more games you play, your probability of becoming bankrupt and becoming a millionaire both increases simultaneously. So, if it is not your super duper lucky day, you will end up loosing everything. Imagine 10 people P1, P2, P3, P4 …. Next in line of bankruptcy is P2 and so on. In no time, P1 and P2 would rob P3. Casino is just a medium to redistribute wealth if the games are fair and not rigged, which we have already concluded is not the case. What if we make the game fair.
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Now this looks fair! Let us run the same simulation we ran with the earlier strategy. Again mathematician style — Hence Proved!
On your lucky day, you will actually win that limit. If you do otherwise, you will be bankrupt even in your most lucky day. Exercise 2 Level : High — Martingale is a famous betting strategy. The rule is simple, whenever you loose, you make the bet twice of the last bet. Once you win, you come back to the original minimum bet. You win 3 games and then you loose 3 games and finally you win 1 game.
So your series of wins will be. Basically what happens is that if you break any loosing streak, you recover all the money you have invested with profit same a minimum bet. For such a betting strategy, find:.
watch Does probability of winning changes at the end of a series of game? Is this strategy any better than our constant value strategy without any upper bound? Talk about bankruptcy rate, expect value at the end of series, probability to win more games, highest earning potential. High number of matches can be as high as , low number of matches can be as low as Casinos are the best place to apply concepts of mathematics and the worst place to test these concepts.
As most of the games are rigged, you will only have fair chances to win while playing against other players, in games like Poker. You might think that this is against your winning streak, however, this is the only way to play a level game with Casino. I hope you enjoyed reading this articl. If you use these strategies next time you visit a Casino I bet you will find them extremely helpful.
If you have any doubts feel free to post them below. Now, I am sure you are excited enough to solve the three examples referred in this article. Make sure you share your answers with us in the comment section.
Related Articles This article is quite old and you might not get a prompt response from the author. The odds in a casino are not in line with the odds of winning.. Correctly pointed out. Or we could just go random as well in the game and yet come out even every time. Interesting information! Thanks for sharing! SAS Business Analyst. Like this: Like Loading This article is quite old and you might not get a prompt response from the author.
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